Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
